12.01.2008 Непроедаемый a resource
|Непроедаемый a resource|
The application of the Government, Нацбанка and АФН about the basic directions of economic policy for 2008 in a new fashion forces to look and at such problem(task), as food safety of the country. It - a component of a complex of the measures directed on amplification(strengthening) of competitiveness of the Kazakhstan economy and realization of structural reforms about which it is spoken in the application. Working in close contact to commercial and industrial chambers of many countries, we see, that these questions concern to number priority everywhere. Also we see, what efforts go on their decision.
The concept " food safety " is defined(determined) as a minimum by four major groups of products: bread, meat, milk and vegetables - fruit. And, building strategy, important clearly to represent those calls with which many states in questions of maintenance of food safety collide(face) today. This theme more than once became a point of issue of missions of the commercial and industrial chambers visiting(attending) Kazakhstan, including in searches of the decision of essential problems of the consumer market.
One of calls of time - growth of cost grain. As is known, in increase of our internal prices for a flour(torment) a serious role incessant growth of the world prices for wheat has played. Growth which, nevertheless, has not resulted in reduction in demand for it(her). Analytics converge in opinion, that the steady rise in price пшеницы caused - on chain reaction - increase of the world prices for vegetable oils. An explanation simple: сельхозтоваропроизводители began to reduce the areas under olive raw material, preferring to sow a winter wheat. So, under the forecast " О il World ", in 2007-2008 years the mid-annual prices of sunflower raw material in the European market вырастут on 55 percents, oils and шрота - on 47 percents concerning a level of 2006-2007 years. Soya products for this season will rise in price almost for third. Besides the reason of outstripping rise in prices on production of a sunflower complex became essential decrease(reduction) of crops of sunflower in Europe and an exhaustion of stocks of sunflower oil.
Basically, this forecast becomes also a signal for revision of some positions in our agrarian strategy. Kazakhstan сельхозплощади are sufficient as for cultivation grain, and olive cultures, and for development of animal industries. While interest of foreign partners to our agrarian sector, maybe, is not expressed yet so precisely, but ideas of investment, development of the joint venture on all length of a chain - from a field, farms up to a counter - already express.
To me recent visit of the Каменск-Ural commercial and industrial chamber by change of subjects of negotiations was well remembered. Speaking about food maintenance of the region, the president of chamber Oleg Ponomarev has emphasized, that transport costs of the imported goods are estimated in 25-30 percents from a wholesale price, that in some times higher, than, for example, in the countries of the Western Europe. Therefore the markets which are on distance of transport availability, are very perspective for export of the foodstuffs from our country. Then Oleg Ponomarev has stated the request to the Kazakhstan partners to promote in opening the Kazakh restaurants in Каменск-Ural. The administration of city is ready to create the maximal conditions for investors under condition of if at these restaurants the assortment of dishes from the Kazakhstan mutton will be offered. Flavouring qualities of our mutton are habitual for Russians and surpass in quality the meat delivered at Russia from distant, very distant foreign countries, for example from New Zealand.
There is also one more argument for the benefit of that the decision of a question on food safety can turn back in development высококонкурентного, and экпортоориентированного and very profitable agrarian complex, capable to provide both a home market, and external. This argument - increasing need(requirement) for alternative power resources. In the world the tendency of escalating of volumes of the agricultural production directed on manufacture of biofuel was designated. Kazakhstan has already followed for this way and consequently the state policy aimed at long-term prospect concerning development of biofuel sector, develops. But, certainly, its(her) main priority there is an account of economic feasibility and a priority of manufacture of food stuffs for the population of the country.
I shall note, that in 2007 in some countries programs of development of manufacture of fuel from renewed energy sources are already accepted. For example, USA - one of the basic exporters of corn in the world market - plan and to reduce its(her) delivery to export in connection with escalating volumes of manufacture биоэтанола further. Under forecasts of experts, annual consumption of corn in USA essentially will increase and will exceed 261 million tons. More than half of her(it) it will be used in the fodder purposes, and almost third will leave on manufacture биоэтанола. And if the need(requirement) for fodder corn has remained practically at a former level needs(requirements) биоэтанолового sectors have provided growth of a parameter of consumption. This raised(increased) demand, in turn, has provoked also a rise in prices on corn. If to remember, that as conducting consumer of corn our quickly growing neighbour - China it is possible to define(determine) and potential of this market, together with economic prospects of the Kazakhstan farmers and ours биоэтанолового sectors will act.
It is impossible to ignore and the tendency of growth of world(global) consumption of meat and milk. It, on the one hand, is connected to increase of consumption of these products per capita due to growth of purchasing capacity. And with another - with growth of number of the population. Basically in the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Other factor - the accelerated urbanization of the countries - traditional suppliers сельхозпродукции. Under forecasts of experts of EU, import of a beef the European countries will increase by 2015 almost in one and a half time. The reasons for that a little, but it is obvious, that search of countries - suppliers also will amplify. The rise in prices is inevitable. But it(he) can become or a problem if we shall sit on a needle of import, the tendency of growth of cost and volumes of production, or will be wrapped up by an economic gain - at presence of all factors promoting growth of productivity of our agrarian sector. One more plus: Investments in development of agrarian and industrial complex (including foreign) will improve a situation with population shift from villages in cities, will solve a number(line) of sharp social problems.
Can be, upon a lesson dawn the last year much has seemed very painful(unhealthy). But his(its) positive is obvious also: clear understanding of new problems(tasks), evolved before agrarian sector, his(its) industrialization. A basis of such strategy can become manufacture and processing of the high technology consumer goods agroindustrial and allied industries. But to avoid dispersion of resources, it is necessary to choose the strategic purposes correctly. And the purposes these should be realistic. And them specifies not only our rich historical experience of the country agrarian, but also tendencies of the global markets where the period of overproduction is replaced with a prevalence of demand over manufacture. The phantom of the forgotten word "deficiency" already emerges in memory. On these ideas наталкивают and contacts of commercial and industrial chambers which as a matter of fact remain the, as at all times, all the same trading караванщиками. And which, as is known, the first caught changes of a commodity conjuncture. The most perspicacious became also the most successful. I think, the same as and one and a half decades back petroleum has given Kazakhstan good economic chance, and now the questions of the food safety which have become aggravated on a global scale, allow us to transform a potential problem to real economic advantage(benefit) in due time.
Vice-president ТПП РК
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